Why BYU should want the worst for the Pac-12 and Utah, and it's not about spite
Here's the six step process for the Pac-12's implosion and a diminished University of Utah.
BYU fans are gleefully aware of the uncertain future faced by the Pac-12 and its member institutions, including the University of Utah, as commissioner George Kliavkoff continues to struggle to land a new media rights deal.
There are several realistic outcomes for the Pac-12 that range from the conference staying together with a “good enough” media deal, to the conference disintegrating completely if schools jump ship for the Big 10 and Big 12.
So what should BYU fans hope for?
Ultimately, BYU supporters should want the most disadvantageous outcome for the University of Utah. Period. End of story.
And the reason for wanting the worst for the Utes isn’t about spite. Rather, it’s all about recruiting, resources, and competitive balance. BYU and Utah often fish from the same recruiting ponds for talent in Utah, the Intermountain West, members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, and Polynesian football players.
The more prestige, exposure, NIL, and resources BYU can offer when compared to Utah, the more four-star recruits will call Provo home. The better the talent that dots BYU rosters, the better the results will be, and the more attractive programs become to additional talent. It’s a virtuous cycle.
With that in mind, here’s the sequence of events BYU fans should be rooting for when it comes to the Pac-12’s future and how it impacts their rival to the north:
Step #1 - “Meh” media rights. The Pac-12 lands a streaming-heavy media deal that’s at least a few million dollars less than the Big 12’s $32 million per school, so let’s say $27 million or thereabouts. It’s a barely viable deal, but viable enough to proceed with.
Step #2 - Unequal revenues. Oregon and Washington aren’t thrilled with the media rights deal and demand unequal revenue sharing in order to sign the contract, so the “lesser” Pac-12 schools (including Utah) would end up with something closer to $22 million.
Step #3 - Big 12 defections. This less-than-appealing financial package and the lack of national exposure due to games being streamed causes Arizona and Colorado to bolt for the Big 12.
Step #4 - Middling Pac-12 expansion. The remaining eight Pac-12 members vote to extend invitations to schools like San Diego State, SMU, Boise State, Fresno State, etc. to form a seriously diminished league that’s clearly a tier below the current Power Five level.
Step #5 - Big 10 defections. The weakened Pac-12 limps along for a couple of years until Washington and Oregon ultimately accept invitations to the Big 10.
Step #6 - Utah’s left out. When the Pac-12 crumbles, Utah does not get an invitation to join a Power Five conference.
In this scenario, Utah is no longer a member of a “Power” conference after the death of the traditional Pac-12 while BYU is enjoying life in the prestigious, expanded, and prosperous Big 12.
This scenario would fundamentally flip the script when it comes to recruiting. Four-star prospects with ties to both BYU and Utah would likely be drawn to BYU’s recruiting pitch of nationally televised games, enhanced funding for facilities and support staff, NIL opportunities, and the chance for players to prove themselves to NFL/NBA scouts by competing week-in and week-out in a Power conference.
Let’s now suppose Utah ends up in a conference consisting of whatever is left of the old Pac-12 - OSU, WSU, ASU, Stanford, Cal - plus some of the more competitive Mountain West teams mentioned above. In that scenario I guess Utah could try to sell recruits on the academic prestige of being in the same conference as Stanford and Cal, but good luck with that.
Hoping for the Pac-12 to get raided and for Utah to be left on the outside looking in at the Power conferences isn’t sour grapes. It isn’t motivated by hatred, bitterness, or spite. This isn’t about getting revenge from 2010 when Utah’s president Mike Young blew up BYU’s plans of leaving the Mountain West for the WAC. This isn’t schadenfreude.
This is solely about wanting what’s best for BYU.
Anything that diminishes Utah is advantageous to BYU, and vice versa. The worse the circumstances for the Utes, the more competitive the Cougars become.
At this point BYU fans should be rooting for George Kliavkoff to propose a less-than-ideal media rights package to the Pac-12’s Board of Directors. Cougar fans should want a Pac-12 contract that’s just palatable enough to keep Utah fighting to hold the conference together, but just disappointing enough for Oregon and Washington to demand unequal revenues and for Arizona and Colorado to have wandering eyes for the Big 12.
BYU fans are rooting for George Kliavkoff to get this “kinda good, kinda bad” media right deal in place as soon as possible.
It’s the first step in our master plan of further elevating BYU above a seriously diminished University of Utah.